Climate change poses severe challenges to global coffee production. At the same time, it opens up new business opportunities linked to carbon mitigation, insetting schemes, sustainability-linked finance, and corporate net-zero commitments.

In a new article published in New Political Economy, Janina Grabs (University of Basel), together with Stefano Ponte and Marc Castellón Durán, investigates how these developments are transforming the political economy of the coffee sector. Drawing on extensive interviews and document analysis, the study shows that climate-related initiatives are generating new sources of “green capital accumulation” for midstream traders and downstream companies.

However, the costs and risks associated with climate adaptation and mitigation are often borne by smallholder farmers. The article contributes to debates on sustainability governance, power asymmetries in global value chains, and the broader political economy of climate transformation.