A new article co-authored by Janina Grabs, Professor of Sustainability Research at the University of Basel, has been published in the European Journal of Development Research.

Climate change is altering coffee production conditions across Tanzania. Changing rainfall patterns and rising temperatures are affecting yields, quality, and the geographic distribution of coffee cultivation. At the same time, domestic procurement reforms have transformed how coffee is traded and exported.

Drawing on extensive fieldwork – including 1,446 household surveys, 113 key informant interviews, and 128 focus group discussions – the study examines how these environmental and regulatory shifts interact to reshape value chain governance.

The findings suggest that, while reforms were intended to strengthen cooperatives and improve smallholder bargaining power, they have introduced greater uncertainty for international traders. As a result, long-term sourcing partnerships—often linked to agronomic support and sustainability initiatives—are declining. Traders are increasingly shifting from cooperative-based sourcing toward large estates.

The study argues that climate change and domestic reforms together risk reinforcing the buyer-driven nature of the coffee value chain. Smallholder farmers are likely to bear a disproportionate share of adaptation costs, while global lead firms maintain their structural power.

The article contributes to ongoing debates on sustainability governance, climate adaptation, and power dynamics in global agri-food value chains.